Quarterly Economic Update April - June 2025

File: GW Market & Economic update – April – June 2025

Duration: 02:40

Date: August 06, 2025

00:01 GW Market & Economic update – April – June 2025

00:04 As Q3 begins, investors face a ‘wall of worry’ with rate decisions, US-Europe tariffs, Middle East tensions, and upcoming corporate earnings reports all in focus.

00:13 War in the Middle East

00:18 Middle East tensions escalated into war in June, spiking oil prices and driving the US dollar to a three-year low.

00:26 Experts warn prolonged conflict could cut Australia’s growth by 0.2% if oil supply is disrupted, especially after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

00:33 US-Europe Trade Tensions

00:37 Trump imposed global tariffs on April 2, then paused those on Europe for 90 days—set to expire August 1.

00:43 With no deal reached, tariffs up to 50% will resume. In response, the EU plans retaliatory duties on €95 billion of U.S. goods. A resolution remains uncertain.

00:52 Fuel Price Outlook

00:56 The Iran-Israel war drove oil prices up, pushing Australian fuel prices 10–15 cents higher.

01:02 With oil fueling inflation and a gas price cap ending in July, fears of renewed inflation are growing.

01:08 Interest Rates

01:12 In May, the RBA cut rates by 0.25% to 3.85% as inflation eased.

01:17 Meanwhile, the U.S. Fed held rates at 4.5% in June, opting for a cautious, data-driven stance.

01:23 Cryptocurrencies and Precious Metals

01:27 Bitcoin neared US$99,000 in late June as markets weighed rate cuts against Middle East tensions.

01:33 Gold held steady around US$3,300, despite uncertainty, after a strong rally since late 2022.

01:40 Equity Market Performance

01:44 Australia’s sharemarket rose 1.3% for the quarter, despite sharp swings—falling over 10% in April before rebounding 20% by June 30.

01:52 U.S. markets followed a similar path, ending with their strongest quarter of the year.

01:57 Housing Market Update

02:01 National house prices rose for a fifth straight month in June, driven by strong demand and boosted buyer confidence after the rate cut, despite affordability pressures.

02:09 Labour Market and Consumer Sentiment

02:14 Unemployment held at 3.8% in May, with job vacancies still high.

02:19 Consumer confidence edged up in June, despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures.

02:24 Looking Ahead

02:28 As Q3 begins, investors face a ‘wall of worry’ with rate decisions, US-Europe tariffs, Middle East tensions, and upcoming corporate earnings reports all in focus.