GW Market & Economic update – July – September 2025

File: GW Market & Economic update – July – September 2025

Duration: 02:43

Date: November 05, 2025

00:01 GW Market & Economic update – July – September 2025

00:04 The September quarter saw cautious optimism, with cooling inflation, steady central banks, and signs of stabilizing global growth.

00:11 Current Price of Gold and Its Implications

00:15 Gold surged to record highs this quarter, driven by central bank buying, investor demand, and Middle East tensions.

00:22 With exports set to hit A$60 billion by 2025–26, gold is poised to become Australia’s second-largest resource export, boosting income amid weaker demand for iron ore and lithium.

00:30 The US Outlook on Interest Rates

00:34 The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% in September as inflation neared target. Growth is steady, with another small cut possible if job numbers soften.

00:41 US markets were quiet, but talk of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods late in the quarter unsettled investors and highlighted ongoing geopolitical risks.

00:48 Evaluations of Equities and Market Performance

00:52 The ASX 200 fell 1.8% to about 8,880 points this quarter.

00:57 Financials, led by ANZ hitting a decade high, stood out, while tech, property, and healthcare lagged. Investors remain cautious, favouring quality and reliable income over speculation.

01:04 Prospects for Interest Rate Movements in Australia

01:08 The RBA has held the cash rate at 3.6% since May as inflation eases to 2.1% and unemployment stays steady at 4.2%.

01:14 They’re waiting to see clear signs inflation is under control before cutting rates, which markets expect might happen by mid-2026.

01:21 The Impact of Oil Prices on the Australian Economy

01:25 Oil prices swung between US$82 and US$95 a barrel this quarter, driven by OPEC+ cuts and Middle East tensions.

01:31 For Australia, higher prices boost LNG exports but raise costs and inflation risks. The RBA is keeping a close eye to ensure fuel prices don’t stall inflation progress.

01:38 A few policy and market stories stood out this quarter:

01:42 - The Federal Government will tax only realised gains on superfunds over $3 million, at 30% for amounts between $3 million and $10 million, and 40% for amounts above $10 million.

01:49 - Critical-minerals policy: Canberra began consultations on a $1.2 billion stockpile to strengthen resource security.

01:55 - Industrial support: A A$600 million package was announced to keep Glencore’s Mount Isa smelter and Townsville refinery operating, protecting regional jobs.

02:02 - Currency movements: The Australian dollar traded between US63c and US67c, supported by higher commodity prices but constrained by global uncertainty.

02:10 Each of these developments carries implications for investors and the broader economy — particularly in sectors tied to exports, manufacturing, and energy.

02:16 Looking Ahead

02:21 As 2025 ends, the global economy is finding balance with easing inflation and steady jobs.

02:27 Central banks in the US and Australia are taking a cautious approach.

02:32 Investors are advised to stay diversified, focus on quality, and look past short-term volatility as the economy steadies into 2026.